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The Rays have been one of baseball’s best teams all season, and now they get to defend their home turf with their ace on the mound. Tampa Bay finished the regular season with the American League’s best record at 98-64 and an outstanding 55-26 home mark, winning nearly 68% of its games at home. That is the kind of home-field advantage I want behind my ticket.

Drew Rasmussen is the biggest reason to like this matchup. He enters with a 16-5 record, a 2.67 ERA and a sparkling 0.91 WHIP. He has allowed more than two runs just once in his last 13 starts, shutting out six opponents during that stretch. When a pitcher is limiting scoring opportunities at that level, it gives his team an excellent chance to cash.

The Guardians have also struggled against Tampa Bay this season, losing five of their six meetings and getting outscored 20-8. The Rays swept all three games against Cleveland at home, including a 1-0 shutout and a 3-0 victory. That is a pretty convincing track record heading into this matchup.

Cleveland is a quality team, and I expect the Guardians to compete, but this is a difficult spot for them. Tampa Bay has the better overall record, the home-field advantage and a starting pitcher who has been remarkably consistent. The Rays also swept the Yankees in the previous postseason round, carrying plenty of momentum into this series.

I'm backing Tampa Bay to get the job done. The Rays have dominated this matchup, Rasmussen has been outstanding, and the home numbers speak for themselves. When you combine the American League's best regular-season record with a 55-26 home mark and an ace who consistently keeps opponents off the scoreboard, you have a strong case for the home side.

THE PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS TO WIN.

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