My Fantasy Baseball Experience - Does ADP Matter?
Hi everyone, it’s Jack Thaler, and I hope you enjoyed my last edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience. This week I will be talking about the question: Does ADP matter?
For those of you who don’t know, ADP stands for Average Draft Position, and it is used to show where players are typically selected in fantasy drafts so managers know roughly when to draft a certain player. But does this really matter when you are drafting a player, and how much does ADP change throughout the year?
I will focus on three players who took big jumps in ADP: Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA), Cal Raleigh, and Ronald Acuña Jr.
PCA jumped from an ADP of 122 to 9 because he is having an incredible breakout season. He has already joined the 20-20 club this season and should continue to dominate in the second half. His ADP was so low because he was a young, unproven player who had not yet broken out at the major league level. Looking back, he would have been a phenomenal pick at No. 122.
Cal Raleigh went from an ADP of 75 to 13 because he is having one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a catcher. Raleigh had a good year in 2024, hitting 34 home runs, but that was only good enough for the 75th ADP slot. In my opinion, Raleigh was undervalued going into the season and should have been drafted much earlier.
As for Acuña, he went from an ADP of 40 to 6. His ADP was lower because he was returning from an injury, which shows how injuries can drastically affect a player’s draft value because nobody knows whether a player will come back the same after getting hurt. Sure enough, Acuña returned and has looked like the same player he was before the injury, earning his way back to his rightful spot near the top of drafts.
Overall, I think ADP doesn’t matter as much as people believe. As we have learned, injuries and players being undervalued can drastically shift ADP. So if you think you have identified a player who is ready to break out, don’t be afraid to draft him a couple of rounds earlier than his ADP suggests, especially in the later rounds.
Now for my waiver pickups of the week.
Pitchers:
Sean Manaea
Brandon Walter
Sean Manaea had an incredible 2024 season, posting a 3.47 ERA, but an oblique injury kept him out until July 13, when he pitched 3.1 innings in relief and allowed only one run. He pitched again on July 18, throwing four innings, allowing one run, and striking out six. If Manaea gets back into form, he can be an outstanding pitcher, so keep an eye on him on the waiver wire.
Brandon Walter debuted on May 20, and although he has had a couple of shaky starts, he has been dominant in his last two outings. Keep an eye on him as well.
Hitters:
Willi Castro (2B)
Mickey Moniak (OF)
Willi Castro has been a reliable player throughout his career, and he has been on a tear lately. As an added bonus, he qualifies at multiple positions and usually steals plenty of bases.
Ever since joining Colorado, former No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak has played well. He has been on a hot streak recently, making him a player worth watching on the waiver wire.
I hope these waiver adds help, and I hope to see you next week for the seventh edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience.
