My Fantasy Baseball Experience: Does Picking First Matter?

Hi, my name is Jack Thaler, and I hope you enjoyed last week’s edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience.

This week, I will try to find out if having the No. 1 pick in the draft really matters.

To determine if the No. 1 pick matters, I will be using the top three ADP players from the last four years, since the person with the first overall pick almost always selects one of the top three players by ADP.

I will say a year did matter if at least two of that year’s top three ADP players ended up performing well enough to justify their draft position.

In 2024, the top three players were Ronald Acuña Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Julio Rodríguez.

Acuña was injured and missed most of the season, Witt had a really good year, and Rodríguez had a down year.

So, in 2024, having the No. 1 pick didn’t matter very much.

In 2023, the top three players were Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and José Ramírez.

Judge missed most of the season with injuries, Turner had a solid year but was not deserving of such a high draft slot, and Ramírez had a down year, although I would still say he was worthy of being selected that early.

So, in 2023, having the No. 1 pick also didn’t matter much.

In 2022, the top three players were Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Juan Soto.

Turner lived up to expectations, Vladdy was also deserving of his draft position, but Soto did not. That makes 2022 the first of these four seasons in which having the No. 1 pick actually mattered.

In 2021, the top three players were Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Mookie Betts.

Acuña played only half the season because of injury, Tatis was absolutely deserving of his draft position, but Betts did not live up to expectations.

So, in 2021, having the No. 1 pick didn’t really matter either.

That means that in only one of the past four seasons did having the No. 1 pick truly provide a significant advantage.

Even so, I still think it depends on the year. While there are always plenty of elite players and hidden values available throughout the first round, some seasons feature one player who is clearly better than everyone else, making the No. 1 pick much more valuable.

That was the case with Tatis in 2021, when he hit 42 home runs, stole 25 bases, and batted .282. Always keep an eye out for that one superstar, but also remember that you can still make an outstanding first-round selection without owning the No. 1 pick.

Now for my waiver pickups of the week.

Pitchers:

Patrick Corbin

Frankie Montas

Patrick Corbin got off to a solid start this season, but he has put together two excellent starts in a row and looks more like his old self again.

Frankie Montas has pitched very well since returning from injury, and if he keeps building momentum, he has the potential to become a valuable fantasy pitcher. Keep an eye on him.

Hitters:

Ryan McMahon (3B)

Matt Shaw (3B)

Ryan McMahon is a power-hitting left-handed batter, and moving to New York gives him the benefit of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. I expect him to hit plenty of home runs, so he is worth watching.

Matt Shaw is one of the Cubs’ top prospects and got off to a rough start in his rookie season.

Lately, however, he has put together a long hitting streak, and with his talent, he is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

I hope these waiver adds help, and I look forward to seeing you next week for my eighth edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience!