My Fantasy Baseball Experience: Downfalls and Breakouts

Hi, my name is Jack Thaler, and I hope you enjoyed last week’s edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience. This week I will be focusing on teaching you how to treat unlikely and sudden breakouts and downfalls while also giving you my hitter and pitcher pickups of the week.

In baseball there are always going to be players who break out and regress from season to season, and in fantasy it is very important how you treat these types of players. For example, this season players like Hunter Goodman, Javier Báez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Andy Pages have had breakout seasons so far, while players like Sandy Alcantara, José Berríos, Mark Vientos, and Willy Adames have shown regression. The way I would handle a situation like this is to try to hoard as many breakout players as possible while also trying to trade for players who have regressed.

Right now we are about halfway through the season, and there is still plenty of time for players who have regressed to completely turn it around and for breakout players to cool off. I think people often overvalue players who have broken out and think too highly of them without considering that some of them have not had much previous success.

Out of the four breakout players I listed, I would trade Goodman and Pages because Báez has had success in the past, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is still young and was a former top prospect. While Pages is also young, he was never considered a top prospect, and Goodman is playing in Coors Field, which helps explain his power surge. I expect him to slow down. I would also try to trade for the two pitchers who have regressed, Berríos and Alcantara. Berríos was outstanding in 2024, and I expect him to figure things out soon. As I mentioned last week, Alcantara is a former Cy Young Award winner and has put together some solid starts recently.

Now that I have talked about breakout and regressing players, I will give you my waiver pickups of the week.

Pitchers:

Jose Soriano

Justin Verlander

Emmet Sheehan

Jose Soriano is a young pitcher with electric stuff, and he has been on fire to start the year. I have always thought Soriano had the potential to become an ace, and 2025 could be the season he puts it all together. I would pay close attention to Soriano on the waiver wire and try to pick him up as soon as possible. The only real concern I have is his health because he throws exceptionally hard for a starting pitcher.

The reason I recommend Justin Verlander is simple: he is Justin Verlander. Even though he has gotten off to a rocky start, I still believe he can turn things around. He is coming off the paternity list and has dealt with injuries, but I think he is worth picking up.

Emmet Sheehan is a young pitcher who has shown flashes of greatness on the mound. He was recently called up and made his first start on the 18th, throwing four innings while allowing one run. He is definitely worth adding.

Hitters:

Jurickson Profar (OF)

Cam Smith (3B)

Nick Kurtz (1B)

Jurickson Profar is returning soon from his steroid suspension. Even though he served the suspension, he had an outstanding 2024 season, and I believe he can still perform close to that level.

Cam Smith is a young, exciting player who has been on an incredible run lately. I believe he is extremely undervalued, so if he is available in your league, try to pick him up.

Nick Kurtz is a former top prospect who has been a home run machine lately. I believe Kurtz is also undervalued, making him a must-add for any fantasy team.

I hope these waiver adds help you, and I hope to see you next week for the third edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience.