Sorry Tom, the Odds Don't Lie

The World Cup has captivated fans across the United States and around the globe, and this week's stunning comeback by Argentina immediately sparked a familiar debate.

Was it the greatest comeback in sports history?

The moment was so remarkable that even Tom Brady joined the conversation. Brady took to social media and suggested Argentina's rally "might" top the New England Patriots' unforgettable comeback from a 28-3 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

It's a fun debate, but if you're a sports bettor, there's a much better way to measure it.

Forget emotion. Forget the highlights. Follow the odds.

Sportsbooks don't care about narratives. They calculate probability, and those numbers tell a very different story.

Argentina trailed 2-0 and, at one point, was listed at approximately +425 to complete the comeback. Those are certainly long odds and made for an incredible victory.

But they don't come close to what the Patriots faced.

When New England fell behind 28-3 in Super Bowl LI, bettors could find the Patriots at approximately +1600 to win the game. In other words, the betting market believed the Patriots had only a small chance of pulling off what eventually became one of the most unforgettable comebacks in NFL history.

That's a massive difference.

It's easy to become a prisoner of the moment, especially during a global event like the World Cup. Every dramatic comeback feels like the greatest one we've ever seen because it's unfolding right in front of us.

That's why betting odds can be such a valuable measuring stick.

They remove the emotion and replace it with probability.

Argentina's comeback was spectacular and deserves every bit of praise it's receiving. It will be remembered as one of the greatest rallies in World Cup history.

But if we're using the numbers that matter most to bettors, the Patriots' comeback remains in a class of its own.

Sometimes the betting market tells a different story than the highlight reel—and in this case, the odds say New England still owns the greatest comeback of them all.