Hochul Holds Double-Digit Edge Over Blakeman in Two Final-Week Polls

With Election Day set for Nov. 3, a pair of statewide surveys released Wednesday found Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee, by more than 10 points. One of them has her margin wider than it was a month ago.

Siena Research Institute measured the race at 54% for Hochul and 40% for Blakeman among likely voters. A month earlier its count was 50-41, so the Democratic incumbent picked up four points while the Nassau County executive lost one. Siena interviewed 807 likely voters from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 points.

Marist Poll, which surveyed 1,448 registered voters from Oct. 22 through Oct. 25, had Hochul at 53% and Blakeman at 42% among those it judged likely to vote, with 4% undecided. Its likely-voter margin of error is 3.9 points.

Siena's numbers carry a milestone for the governor. Her favorable rating in Siena's survey is now 51%, with 45% unfavorable, a gain on September's 48-46 split and the first time Siena has measured her above half. On job performance, 51% approve and 46% disapprove. Blakeman's own rating is close to even, at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

Marist paints a less flattering picture of both candidates. Only 41% of its likely voters view Hochul favorably, against 51% who do not, and Blakeman sits at 36-42. Blakeman remains a blank to 19% of them, who either did not know him or offered no rating.

Expectations run strongly toward the governor. Marist found 71% of likely voters predicting she will be re-elected. Siena's figure is 68%, against 23% who expect Blakeman to prevail, and even among Republicans four in 10 see Hochul keeping the office.

Where the two surveys part ways is independents. Siena has Hochul winning them 51-40, a reversal from September, when Blakeman led that group 44-39. Marist's table shows the opposite, with Blakeman ahead among independents 49% to 39%.

Steven Greenberg, the Siena pollster, said the regional map is the Republican's problem. "With only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents," he said. In Siena's breakdown, Hochul leads 67-23 in New York City, 49-47 in the suburbs and 49-48 upstate.

Blakeman's campaign rejected both results in a written statement. "Today's polls are nothing more than voter suppression tactics designed to discourage Republicans and manipulate the outcome of this election," Blakeman said, adding that the campaign's own surveys "show a neck-and-neck race." Turnout modeling is where the campaign wants answers. It called on the pollsters to be more open about their methods, noting that white voters made up roughly 73% of Siena's likely electorate but about 62% of Marist's, and that the two surveys' readings on independents differ by 21 points.

Down the ballot, the Democratic incumbents also hold comfortable leads in Siena's survey. Letitia James, the attorney general, is up 54-39 over Saritha Komatireddy, the GOP nominee. Tom DiNapoli, the comptroller, has widened his margin over Joseph Hernandez to 59-32, from 56-33 in September. Asked which party they want in Congress without names attached, voters favor Democrats 54-39 in Siena's poll and 56-42 in Marist's likely-voter results.

President Donald Trump is a drag on Republicans in both surveys. Only 18% of Marist's likely voters called their House vote mainly a show of support for him, while 47% said it was chiefly a vote against him. His approval in that poll is 38%, with 61% disapproving. In Siena's poll, 48% said Trump's endorsement has hurt Blakeman, against 28% who said it helped.

Hochul's endorsement from Zohran Mamdani, the city's mayor, is seen as a plus by 45% of Siena's voters and a minus by 30%. Statewide the mayor rates 47-43. Inside the five boroughs he is at 69-28, compared with 60-31 a month ago.