Well, Well: Trump Convinces Ukraine, Russia to Stop Attacking Oil Infrastructure

President Donald J. Trump launched the Third Gulf War irrespective of its effects on the economy and, more specifically, the price of gasoline, but did he expect Ukrainian President Volodymyr O. Zelenskyy to work to drive up the price of gasoline and home heating oil?

Monday, the president posted on Truth Social that Ukraine, along with Russia, would be backing off, but will it be in time to help Republicans in the midterm election?

“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!” Trump posted. “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Ukraine/Russia War, not Iran. President DJT.”

The trigger for the president’s concern seems to be the price of diesel crossing $6 per gallon, which, for regular Americans focused on gasoline, is interesting, but not what someone else pays.

For businesses, the price of diesel is embedded in everything carried by truck or railroad.

When the president was running in 2024, he was absolutely correct that the best way to beat the inflation created by President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s multitrillion-dollar spending pork bills was to lower the cost of energy.

Going into the 2022 midterms, the people around Biden deliberately drained the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 220 million barrels, nearly 40 percent, in the months before the votes were counted.

The national average price of gasoline peaked June 13, 2022, at $5.006 per gallon, but by Dec. 26, 2022, it was down to $3.091. More importantly to the Biden White House, the drop in gas prices helped dash the so-called Red Wave on the rocks.

After COVID-19 missteps, the star-crossed Afghanistan withdrawal and the growing awareness of Biden’s mental decline, it was supposed to be a Republican landslide.

House Republicans flipped nine seats, giving them a 222-213 majority in the next Congress, and Senate Republicans lost a seat, putting them in the 51-49 minority.

In March, Trump saw that his war with the Islamic Republic of Iran was not going to have an extended impact on oil prices, so he loosened sanctions on Russian oil. First, he lifted sanctions on Russian oil already loaded on tankers, which meant dozens of tankers, brimming with Russian oil, could proceed to refineries—specifically, refineries in India and the so-called “teapot” small, independent Chinese refineries.

Originally a 30-day program, Trump has extended it and announced that all sanctions on Russian oil were suspended until the Strait of Hormuz crisis was resolved. Trump’s goal was to increase the supply of world oil to take pressure off the tight oil markets. Zelenskyy had other ideas.

For the last 12 months, Ukraine has launched more than 100 attacks on targets associated with the Russian oil industry, including 74 on refineries and 10 on port terminals and/or facilities.

This is a classic case of divergent interests.

Ukraine has knocked roughly 700,000 barrels of refinery capacity offline in the last year across 16 different refineries.

Zelenskyy, who in 2024 campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, had to know that he was jamming up Trump, not to mention American consumers, but this is the point of nationalism.

One can hardly blame Zelenskyy for putting “Ukraine First.”

Meanwhile, Trump has to deal with his real master: the calendar.

Not only is there an election Nov. 3 for one-third of the Senate and all of the House, but in October, U.S. refineries switch their priorities from diesel to home heating oil until March.

Granted, 80 percent of home heating oil is consumed in the Northeast, so it is concentrated in one part of the country, but that is close to five million homes. If you think people get ticked off about gasoline prices, wait for when that home heating oil bill comes in.

Neil W. McCabe is a Washington-based journalist and media consultant covering national politics. He retired from the Army Reserve as a senior public affairs NCO and received a Bronze Star for his service in Iraq as a combat historian. Follow him: @ReporterMcCabe.