From the Newsroom: Shock Poll Puts Hochul on Notice

I know a thing or two about professional political polling.

As a candidate, I hired the national firm co/efficient to run polls on messaging and the usual “horse race” numbers to see if I was far ahead or far behind.

They were always spot on.

As a GOP consultant who served as spokesman for Vivek Ramaswamy’s national presidential campaign, I know firsthand that solid polls are vital in determining what issues matter most to the people you wish to represent. If requiring an ID to vote and border security come back as the top issues, those become the focus of the campaign.

Which brings me to a recent co/efficient poll in the race for New York Governor.

Political polls are snapshots in time. Yet co/efficient has earned a reputation for precision, hitting the mark multiple times in major races. Look, I get why folks don’t trust pollsters, especially after 2016. We know how that turned out.

In God we Trust, all others bring data.

In the 2024 presidential race, co/efficient showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied in Wisconsin. Trump ultimately carried the state by less than one point. Its Wisconsin U.S. Senate poll also placed Sen. Tammy Baldwin at 49 percent, virtually matching her final vote share.

The biggest race co/efficient nailed was New York’s 2022 Governor’s race.

co/efficient found Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican and William Floyd grad Lee Zeldin by six percentage points. On Election Day, Hochul won by approximately 6.4 points, placing the firm's margin within less than half a point of the certified outcome.

That history provides context for co/efficient's newest survey of New York's 2026 governor's race . The poll shows Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

In July 2022, multiple polls showed Hochul with double-digit leads over Zeldin. By November, that advantage had largely disappeared.

If Hochul is ahead by only six points today, it is plausible the race could tighten considerably before Election Day.

A lot can change over the next 16 weeks.

If it were any other polling company, I'd be skeptical.

It's not.

Buckle up. Grab some popcorn. Keep an eye on the South Shore Press.

We've got a race on our hands for New York governor.