Ben Johnson Wants Points — I'm Listening

Usually, preseason "coach speak" should be largely ignored by sports bettors.

We've all heard it before: "He's in the best shape of his life." "It's an open competition." "We're going to take it one game at a time." Coaches say these things for all kinds of reasons, and most of the time, there isn't much for bettors to take away from them.

Then there are moments when a coach pulls back the curtain just a little bit.

That happened this week with Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson, and I think sports bettors should pay attention.

Johnson wasn't shy about his offensive expectations, saying, "I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever. I know how many points per game they scored, 37.9, and I want to surpass them ... I want blowouts."

Now, let's be realistic. Every coach wants blowouts. Nobody is sitting in an NFL locker room saying, "I'd really like to win this one by three."

But this is different because of who is saying it.

Johnson is widely regarded as one of the NFL's top offensive minds. Before taking over in Chicago, he was the offensive coordinator in Detroit, where he helped build one of the league's most productive offenses.

Now he's in Chicago with a quarterback he believes can become a star, a talented tight end and an offense that has continued adding weapons.

So, when Johnson tells us he wants to score — and score a lot — I'm listening.

The question for sports bettors isn't necessarily whether the Bears can actually surpass the 2013 Denver Broncos, who averaged nearly 38 points per game, and set the NFL's all-time scoring record.

That's a massive ask.

The more interesting question is how sportsbooks will adjust to what Johnson wants this offense to become.

Early in the season, I don't expect the market to immediately make massive adjustments. The Bears will face some quality defenses, and sportsbooks will need to see the offense consistently produce before dramatically moving their numbers.

But as the season progresses, the schedule gets more favorable, and that's where things could get interesting.

If Johnson's offense starts clicking the way he expects, I will be looking closely at Bears team totals and full-game totals. There could also be one or two favorable matchups early in the season where the market hasn't fully adjusted to Chicago's offensive potential.

This isn't about blindly betting the Bears every week because their coach said he wants to score 38 points.

It's about recognizing what a coach is telling us and then watching to see whether the numbers catch up.

Johnson just gave bettors a pretty clear message: He doesn't want conservative football.

He wants points. He wants big plays. And most importantly, he wants blowouts.

That has to be factored into our betting models this season.

And if the Bears offense starts living up to Johnson's vision, I'll be looking to cash in when the sportsbooks are a step behind.