Don’t Bet on the Rams Being a Sure Thing Just Yet

The Los Angeles Rams added Aaron Donald out of retirement last week, and suddenly it seems like everyone has handed them the Lombardi Trophy.

The betting market certainly seems to agree.

The Rams were already the prohibitive favorite to win the Super Bowl, and while many people thought Donald might eventually make a comeback, actually seeing him return caused the prediction markets to raise Los Angeles’ chances of winning it all by roughly 2%.

Two percent might not sound like much, but in the world of Super Bowl futures, that is a significant jump. In fact, that increase alone is greater than the entire championship chances assigned to more than a dozen teams.

But here is the problem with a “sure thing” in sports betting: there are no sure things.

Yes, the Rams look like the next great Super Bowl team. They have an outstanding roster, an elite defense and now have one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history coming back to the lineup.

But there are still questions.

Their quarterback is aging and has dealt with injuries. Their top wide receiver has had his share of offseason issues. Donald is coming out of retirement, and as good as he has been throughout his Hall of Fame career, nobody knows exactly what he will look like after stepping away from football.

They also have a new defensive end who still has to get comfortable in the Rams’ system. Then there are the usual NFL variables — injuries, bad matchups, a strange bounce here or there and the fact that winning three or four playoff games against the best teams in the league is incredibly difficult.

None of that means the Rams aren't a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

They absolutely are.

But sports betting isn't simply about determining which team is the best. It is also about determining whether the price being offered is worth the risk.

And right now, the public perception of the Rams is pushing that price higher.

Los Angeles is sitting around +500 to win the Super Bowl, and history tells us that teams carrying that kind of preseason expectation are rarely worth blindly jumping on.

Over the past three decades, the preseason favorite has carried odds of +500 or shorter 20 times. Not once did that team go on to win the Super Bowl.

Think about that.

Twenty teams. Zero championships.

And these weren't obscure teams that nobody thought could win. The Kansas City Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, failed to deliver when they entered seasons with similar expectations, including +500 in 2024 and +450 in 2021 and 2020.

The New England Patriots had the same problem during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. Being the preseason favorite doesn't guarantee anything once the games begin.

That's the trap with betting on a team like the Rams right now.

You aren't just betting on how good they are. You're betting against history, injuries, expectations and a price that has already factored in just about everything that could possibly go right.

Maybe Donald comes back and looks like the Donald of old. Maybe the quarterback stays healthy. Maybe the receiver puts the offseason distractions behind him. Maybe everything clicks.

If it does, the Rams could absolutely win the Super Bowl. But at +500, I'm not interested in paying the price for perfection. There is no value there, and value this time of year means everything.

The Rams may be the best team in football. That doesn't make them the best bet.