Don’t Overthink This One — Ride With Misiorowski

I am trying not to overthink this one, because sometimes the easiest bet is sitting right in front of you.

Yes, the Mets have been playing better. Yes, Sean Manaea has shown flashes of being the pitcher Mets fans hoped they were getting. But let's be real here: this is the Mets against the best team in baseball, with the best pitcher in baseball on the mound.

Manaea has certainly had his moments, including a dominant seven-inning, 11-strikeout performance against Pittsburgh earlier this month. But he has also been tagged for four runs in each of his last two starts, and the matchup does him absolutely no favors.

Then there is Jacob Misiorowski.

The numbers are ridiculous. Thirteen wins. A 1.68 ERA. 216 strikeouts. He leads the National League in ERA and strikeouts and has established himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.

And this isn't just a case of looking at a shiny ERA and assuming everything is perfect. Misiorowski has been incredibly consistent. He has allowed three runs in a game only four times all season, and he has not allowed more than three runs in any start. That's the kind of consistency I want when I'm putting my money behind a pitcher.

Could the Mets win? Absolutely. This is baseball, and weird things happen every single night. The Mets have enough talent to make this interesting, and one bad inning from Misiorowski could completely change the game.

But I don't think that is the most likely outcome.

The Brewers are the best team in baseball for a reason, and they are not coming into Citi Field to give the Mets a confidence-building exercise. Milwaukee has been rolling, and Misiorowski has been pitching like a guy who is determined to make the Cy Young race a very short conversation.

I'm not getting cute with this one. I'm not looking for some wild prop. I'm not trying to convince myself that the Mets suddenly figured everything out.

I'm taking Milwaukee and Misiorowski.

Sometimes the best betting strategy is simply recognizing when one side has a massive advantage. Don't overthink it. Ride with Mis.

For more winners like this please check out TomBartonSports.com