Going Back to Backing Perez

I am going to keep going back to Perez and with my 15-7 record, with five wins in a row, I'm trusting mu gut here. Sometimes the matchup is sitting right in front of you, and this is one of those games where I want Eury Perez and the Miami Marlins.

Perez has been outstanding lately, and we have already seen him shut down this Nationals lineup. Just last week, Perez went five innings against Washington, allowing only one earned run while striking out six. He has been on a serious run since returning from injury, posting a 1.80 ERA over his last several starts.

And this isn't just about one good outing. Perez has been consistently limiting damage, which is exactly what I want to see when laying a price with a starting pitcher.

Now look at the other side.

Washington is sending Jackson Kent to the mound, and this is where the matchup really starts to tilt toward Miami. Kent enters with an 8.03 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his limited big-league work. That is a massive problem against a Marlins team that has already beaten the Nationals eight times in nine meetings this season.

The Nationals have also been struggling badly. Washington has dropped 10 of its last 12 games and just came out of a stretch where the offense has had trouble producing consistently.

Then there is the bullpen.

If Kent cannot give Washington meaningful innings, Miami gets a chance to attack a relief corps that has already been vulnerable. That is a dangerous situation when you have the better starting pitcher and the better recent matchup history on your side.

The current market has Miami around -140 depending on the book, so I am not pretending this is some massive underdog value play. I am paying for the pitching advantage.

Miami is 8-1 against Washington this season. Perez has already shown he can handle this lineup. Kent has struggled to get big-league hitters out.

I don't need to invent a complicated angle here.

My Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline. Give me Perez, give me the Marlins, and let's keep this one simple.

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