Home Sweet Home

The Rays return home, where they were an outstanding 59-27 during the regular season, and I like their chances with Freddy Peralta on the mound against his former team. Tampa Bay has also gone 4-1 in the postseason, and Peralta has become one of the biggest reasons this team is playing for a championship.

Since joining the Rays, Peralta has completely turned his season around. After posting a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts with the Mets, he finished the regular season with a 3.25 ERA over his final 10 starts for Tampa Bay, going 5-2. His September performance was even more impressive, as he went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA over five starts and 28 innings. Those are the kind of numbers that make me confident backing him in this spot.

Peralta has carried that dominance into October. He earned American League Championship Series MVP honors after posting a 0.75 ERA across three appearances against Cleveland. He allowed just one earned run in 12 innings, striking out nine while helping the Rays advance to the World Series. Overall this postseason, he has a 1.08 ERA across 16 2/3 innings, with 12 strikeouts.

The home-field advantage is another major factor. Tampa Bay's 59-27 home record shows how comfortable the Rays have been in their own ballpark, and now they have a pitcher who has been delivering under the brightest lights. The fact that Peralta knows Milwaukee's organization adds another interesting wrinkle to this matchup.

The Rays have won nine consecutive games started by Peralta, and I see no reason to fade him now. Tampa Bay is desperate to keep its championship hopes alive, and getting this price with a pitcher in this kind of form is an opportunity I want to take.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -110.

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