Is That Tarik Skubal? Nope, Even Better

I'm going back to the well with Troy Melton, and if you've been following along, you know I've had plenty of success backing the Tigers' new ace.

Melton has been phenomenal since joining Detroit's rotation, going 7-1 with a sparkling 1.46 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. Those aren't just good numbers — they're the kind of numbers that make me want to keep riding him until the market catches up.

And right now, I don't think it has.

Melton hasn't allowed a single run in any of his last three starts, spanning an incredible 20 innings. Over his last 10 starts, he's surrendered just five total runs. That's the type of consistency I'm looking for when playing a pitcher prop.

The workload is another reason I like this number.

Melton has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts, and he's reached this 16½-out total in 10 of his 13 starts. That's a pretty strong hit rate, especially considering we're only asking him to record 17 outs — essentially get through the sixth inning.

I'm not asking Melton to throw a complete game. I'm not even asking him to finish seven innings.

I just need him to get through five innings and two outs.

Considering how dominant he's been lately, that's a number I'm willing to trust.

The strikeout upside is nice, but for this prop, I don't even need Melton to rack up a huge strikeout total. What I need is for him to continue doing what he's been doing: throwing strikes, limiting traffic and working efficiently enough to stay in the game.

He's been doing exactly that.

The play: Troy Melton over 16½ outs.

I've backed Melton plenty of times already, and I'm not jumping off now. Give me the Tigers' new ace to keep rolling and get us at least 5⅔ innings for the over.

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