Rest Is Becoming a Major Weapon in the NFL

As we head deeper into the NFL season, one developing trend has continued to deliver some impressive results for bettors: the team with the rest advantage is not just covering the spread, it's winning outright at a remarkable rate.

Usually, this is a trend that becomes more pronounced as the season wears on. By November and December, players have taken plenty of punishment, injuries begin to pile up, and those extra days to recover can make a significant difference. But this season, the rest advantage has been showing up early, and the numbers have been difficult to ignore.

Coming into this past weekend, teams with a rest advantage were an incredible 26-10-1 against the spread. Even more impressive was the performance of home teams enjoying extra rest, which had gone an eye-popping 14-3 ATS. Those are the kinds of numbers that should have every handicapper paying attention.

This week's results gave us another opportunity to test the trend, and while it wasn't quite as dominant as some of the previous weeks, it still delivered a winning weekend.

On the road, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Houston all covered their numbers, while Arizona was unable to get the job done. At home, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers both continued the positive trend by covering, while Carolina and New Orleans came up short.

That left the rest-advantage teams with a 5-3 ATS record for the weekend. It wasn't the kind of overwhelming performance we've seen previously, but a winning 5-3 weekend is certainly nothing to complain about. Over time, consistently finding those edges is what separates profitable betting from simply guessing.

The upcoming schedule offers several more interesting situations to watch. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are coming off their bye weeks, giving both teams an opportunity to take advantage of some extra recovery time. The Steelers face Cincinnati, while the Titans take on Jacksonville. There is one important wrinkle in that matchup: Jacksonville also benefits from additional rest after playing on Thursday, so Tennessee won't have the same clear-cut advantage it might have against a team coming off a normal week.

The Ravens are another team worth monitoring. Baltimore played Thursday and now gets the benefit of extra preparation time before its Monday night matchup against the Chargers. That creates a scheduling edge worth considering when evaluating the next game on its calendar.

There are also a couple of particularly interesting home-team situations. The New York Jets welcome Buffalo after the Bills played Monday night, while Green Bay hosts Minnesota following the Vikings' Monday night game against the Bills. Those are the types of scheduling spots that can create an advantage for the home team, especially when the visitor has a shorter week to prepare.

The biggest rest advantage of the week may belong to Baltimore. The Ravens will have 11 days between their Thursday night game against Jacksonville and their Monday night meeting with the Chargers. Pittsburgh and Tennessee will each have 14 days between games after their bye weeks.

The takeaway for bettors is simple: don't overlook the schedule. Matchups, injuries and team performance will always matter, but rest can be another valuable piece of the handicapping puzzle. We're seeing that advantage show up in the win-loss column and, more importantly, at the betting window.

I'll be watching these spots closely as we head into another week of NFL action. A trend doesn't guarantee a winner, but when the numbers keep pointing in the same direction, it's certainly worth paying attention.