I'm Backing the Ace of Aces

After improving my free play record to 6-1, I'm going right back to another big favorite. Instead of laying the hefty moneyline, I'll take the Tigers -1.5 on the run line at close to even money.

Detroit has cooled off a bit after its six-game winning streak, going 5-4 since then, but this is a perfect bounce-back spot. Earlier this season, the Tigers swept the Royals at home, and now Kansas City comes into Detroit with one of the worst road records in baseball. The Royals have won just 17 of their 51 road games, and things don't get any easier when you have to face Tarik Skubal.

Skubal is reminding everyone why he's one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has looked sharper with every outing since returning from injury. In his last start, he fired seven scoreless innings against the Angels while striking out nine. That marks the fourth time in his last five starts that he's reached the nine-strikeout mark, and over his last four outings, he's allowed a combined four earned runs.

If history is any indication, Kansas City is in trouble. Skubal absolutely dominated the Royals last season, posting a microscopic 0.95 ERA over 19 innings against them. This is simply a matchup he has owned.

On the other side is Noah Cameron, and it's hard to find many positives. Cameron has endured a brutal season, and his recent performances have only made things worse. He was tagged for seven runs on nine hits in his last outing and has now surrendered at least five runs in four of his last five starts. He also faced this Tigers lineup back in May and lasted only four innings while allowing three runs.

This is a mismatch from the first pitch. Detroit has the far better starter, the stronger lineup, and the home-field advantage. If Skubal pitches the way he has over the past month, the Tigers should be in control all afternoon.

Best Bet: Tigers -1.5. I expect Skubal to dominate and Detroit to win this one comfortably, making the run line the better value over the expensive moneyline.

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