Looking for Week 1 Betting Value? Tight Ends Could Be the Answer

Week 1 brings some very interesting lines from a betting perspective, and in many cases, the public is at a major disadvantage.

There are new coaches, new schemes and new players in new places. There are also plenty of questions that simply haven't been answered yet. Unfortunately, all of that uncertainty is often masked by the public's short memory.

What happened last season?

That becomes the calling card for Week 1, and it can bury plenty of bettors.

We see the same thing in the prop market. Take a player like Jahmyr Gibbs at home to score a touchdown. A -330 price is going to attract plenty of attention because bettors remember what Gibbs did last season and expect him to continue doing it. But that enormous number also scares enough bettors away that the sportsbooks aren't particularly concerned.

One area where I think we might have an edge this week is at tight end.

Tight ends are often overlooked when it comes to player props, particularly the anytime touchdown market. The touchdown market isn't exactly the place to find a lot of value anymore because of its popularity, but this week there are four tight ends sitting at plus money who make sense as candidates to find the end zone.

You really need just two of them to hit to make this strategy interesting.

Colston Loveland is +185 to score a touchdown, and while I actually like his receiving yards total better this week, there is some solid value here. Loveland is becoming the focal point of the Chicago offense, and we saw that late last season. With DJ Moore gone, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden dealing with injuries, and a matchup against a vulnerable Carolina defense, I expect Loveland to get opportunities in the red zone.

Tyler Warren fits the same bill.

Michael Pittman Jr. is gone, Josh Downs is dealing with injuries, and Alec Pierce has his own question marks. Add in Daniel Jones, who doesn't bring the same mobility he once did, and Warren could become an even bigger part of the offense.

At +185, he's worth a shot, although I like his reception prop even more this week.

Tucker Kraft is in a similar spot. With Josh Jacobs out, I expect Green Bay to lean more heavily on the passing game, and Kraft has looked healthy throughout camp. He's nearly 2-to-1 to score a touchdown and could become a major red-zone target against a defense capable of limiting opposing wide receivers.

Then there's Brock Bowers.

Of the four, Bowers offers the least value at +155, but you're still getting a plus-money return. The reasoning here is simple: The Raiders don't have many other trusted pass catchers, they have a veteran quarterback who loves targeting his tight end, and they face one of the weaker defenses in the league.

When all is said and done, there are plenty of ways to attack Week 1.

But sometimes the best strategy is finding a market the public isn't paying enough attention to.

This week, that market might be tight ends.

And with four of them sitting at plus money, there may be some value hiding in plain sight.