I'm Betting on Some More Ace-Like Production

This is Troy Melton vs. Noah Cameron, and their recent numbers are eye-popping.

I'm not expecting a fireworks show in this one. I'm expecting two pitchers who have been dealing and two offenses that have struggled to consistently put runs on the board.

Melton has been outstanding this season, going 7-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He's allowed just three runs combined over his last four starts and has held every opponent to three runs or fewer in each of his last 10 outings.

He also held Kansas City to just two runs when he faced the Royals about a month ago.

That's the kind of recent form I want to see when I'm playing an under.

Then there's Cameron, who is coming off an absolute gem. He went the distance against the Angels, allowing just one hit in a dominant performance. That outing extended an impressive stretch, as Cameron has now allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts.

So we've got two pitchers who are rolling and two offenses that aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard.

Detroit has scored just four runs combined over its last two games, while Kansas City has been held to four runs or fewer in nine of its last 13 games.

That's a pretty good recipe for an under.

The total is sitting at 8½ runs, and I think the pitching matchup gives us plenty of reason to attack it.

Could one of these offenses suddenly break out? Of course. That's always the risk when betting an under. But I'm willing to trust the recent numbers here.

Melton has been incredibly consistent, Cameron is coming off one of his best performances of the season, and neither lineup has been particularly reliable lately.

The play: Under 8½ runs.

Give me the two starting pitchers who are in excellent form, a pair of offenses struggling to score and a game that stays comfortably below this number.

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