Pay the Price: Chris Sale Gives Braves a Massive Edge

I know the price tag is steep, but this is one of those spots where I'm willing to pay for the clear pitching advantage. On a short betting card with an early first pitch, backing the home team with the significantly better starter is the right approach, and that's exactly what Atlanta has in Chris Sale.

Sale remains one of the few true aces left in today's game, and he's looked every bit the part this season. The veteran left-hander owns a dominant 2.06 ERA to go along with 10 victories, and he's been remarkably consistent from start to start. He hasn't allowed a run over his last 10 innings, and dating back to April 6, every opponent except one has been held to three runs or fewer. Even more impressive, Sale has limited four of his last five opponents to one run or less.

On the other side is Griffin Canning, and this matchup couldn't be much tougher for him. Canning enters with a record of just 1-8 and an ERA approaching 7.00. He hasn't pitched beyond five innings in any of his last six starts and has completed five innings only once all season. That's a major concern against an Atlanta lineup that can make opposing starters work early and often.

If that isn't enough, Canning already faced the Braves just one month ago, and it was a disaster. Atlanta tagged him for four runs before he could even record the third out of the game, forcing an early exit and putting the Padres behind immediately.

Everything points in Atlanta's favor. The Braves have the massive edge on the mound, they're playing at home, and they're facing a struggling starter who has already failed against this lineup. Sometimes the expensive favorite is the right side, and this is one of those situations.

Best Bet: Braves moneyline. It's a hefty price, but I'm comfortable laying it when the matchup is this one-sided.

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