Pay the Price to Chop with the Braves

Sometimes the matchup is just too obvious, and this feels like one of those spots where I want to be on the Atlanta Braves.

Ryan Feltner has been flat-out bad lately, and now he gets to face a Braves team that is playing some of its best baseball of the season. Feltner enters Saturday with a 6.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and his recent numbers are even uglier. He allowed seven runs in his most recent start against Washington and has been getting hit hard throughout the second half.

That is a terrible combination when you're walking into Truist Park to face an Atlanta lineup that just won its fifth straight game after beating Colorado 6-4 on Friday night. The Braves also just came off a sweep of the Dodgers, so this isn't some team beating up on bad competition and hoping to stay hot. They are playing with confidence right now.

Then there is Martin Perez.

Perez isn't going to blow anyone away with strikeout numbers, but that isn't what I need from him here. He enters with a 3.12 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and he's been doing exactly what Atlanta needs: keeping teams from putting crooked numbers on the board.

The biggest number for me, though, might be the home record. Atlanta is 46-23 at home, while Colorado is just 25-45 on the road. That is a massive difference, and it becomes even more important when you combine it with the starting pitching matchup.

The Rockies are also simply not a team I want to trust in this spot. Their pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball since the All-Star break, and Feltner has been one of the biggest problems.

The Braves have the better starter, the better offense, the better home record and all the momentum.

My Pick: Braves Moneyline.

I don't need to get cute here. Give me Atlanta at home, give me Perez on the mound, and let Feltner try to prove me wrong.

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