Blue State Blakeman Shocker: Single Digit Hochul Lead Shrinks To 9 Points

New York’s race for governor has tightened to single digits, with Republican Bruce Blakeman trailing Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul by just nine points in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one.

A Siena University poll released Wednesday has Hochul at 50% and Blakeman at 41% among likely voters, narrowing slightly from Hochul’s 49%-39% advantage in August.

The single-digit margin stands out against New York’s heavily Democratic political landscape — and against where the governor’s race stood four years ago.

“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “He now trails by single digits – well, nine points – in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one.”

That registration advantage has historically made statewide races an uphill climb for Republicans. New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki won his third term in 2002.

The comparison to 2022 provides another measuring stick.

“At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin 17 points, 54-37%, before going on to win by six points,” Greenberg said.

Zeldin ultimately lost to Hochul 53%-47%, one of New York’s closest gubernatorial elections in decades.

Blakeman is carrying Republicans 88%-8%, while Hochul leads Democrats 81%-11%. Blakeman also leads among independents, 44%-39%.

The geographic numbers show an equally sharp divide. Hochul dominates New York City 61%-27%, but the race is nearly even elsewhere: Hochul leads the downstate suburbs 48%-46%, while Blakeman leads upstate 47%-44%.

The latest numbers also represent a dramatic change from earlier this year. Siena had Hochul ahead by 20 points, 52%-32%, in June.

Now, with six weeks remaining, that advantage stands at nine points.

The poll surveyed 1,144 likely voters Sept. 11-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.