GUEST EDITORIAL: How the Battle for the U.S. House Runs Through New York

Control of the U.S. House could once again come down to just a handful of seats, and few states will matter more than New York.

From Long Island and the Hudson Valley to Central and Upstate New York, competitive congressional districts have turned the Empire State into a national political battleground. New York Republicans helped deliver the GOP House majority in 2022, and Democrats know that winning it back will require reclaiming ground here. Simply put, the road to the House majority runs through New York.

Looking towards Upstate, several key congressional districts are in play. These include NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21 and NY-22.

In 2022, NY Republicans flipped multiple House districts in what was one of the single largest wins Republicans have had throughout New York State. Here, former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro won in NY's 19th Congressional District, spanning much of the Southern Tier and Catskill regions.

In addition, former Congressman Brandon Williams won in NY-22, moving what was once a heavily Democratic district into Republican hands. Other key flips included firebrand Republican and former Assemblyman Mike Lawler in NY-17, and several downstate Republicans: Congressmen Anthony D'Esposito, Nick LaLota and George Santos.

Two years later, in 2024, New York Republicans faced harsh times even though President Trump performed well in New York considering the then-current political landscape. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and a constellation of allied outside groups pumped tens of millions of dollars behind Congressmen Josh Riley and John Mannion, raising questions about how much influence outside organizations have over congressional-level races.

Now, looking towards the 2026 election cycle, these five districts — NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21 and NY-22 — are in play.

Congressman Mike Lawler in NY-17 is seeking a third term while Democrats aim to unseat him in yet another cycle where millions will be spent in one House district. Congressman Lawler has been a GOP firebrand and will likely expand his support throughout NY-17's Rockland, Putnam, Westchester and Dutchess counties.

Looking at NY-18, up-and-coming Republican Jackie Auringer is looking to unseat Congressman Pat Ryan in what has recently become an offensive move for NY Republicans in Orange, Dutchess and Ulster counties.

NY-19, led by Congressman Josh Riley, is perhaps one of the tightest races in Upstate New York. State Senator Peter Oberacker is taking on one-term Congressman Josh Riley.

Former Congressman Marc Molinaro, often crowned the "Governor of Upstate New York" and perhaps one of the most well-known Republicans throughout NYS, fended off Riley in 2022, yet suffered in 2024 due to millions being pumped in from out-of-district PACs.

Looking north towards NY-21, business owner and MAGA firebrand Anthony Constantino looks to succeed Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in one of the nation's largest geographic congressional districts east of the Mississippi River. He will face dairy farmer and Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien in what will likely be a competitive but favorable race for Mr. Constantino.

To the west, incumbent Congressman John Mannion will face former senior official of the USDA Kailee Buller in NY's 22nd Congressional District, spanning much of Central NY and the Mohawk Valley.

All in all, Upstate New York is offering itself to be a major battleground for up-and-coming NY Republicans against many one-term incumbent Democratic congressmen or Democratic newcomers.

Looking downstate, NY Republicans and Congressmen Nick LaLota (NY-01) and Andrew Garbarino (NY-02) will likely secure steadfast wins in what have been Republican strongholds throughout Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Towards the city, NY Republican and Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis has been targeted by Democrats for three terms now, successfully fending off opponents in what has been a Republican hold within New York City.

The two major downstate toss-ups come within NY-03 and NY-04. Former Assemblyman and Republican Mike LiPetri seeks to unseat Congressman Thomas Suozzi in a rematch where LiPetri lost by a narrow margin of 51.7% to 48.1% in western Long Island's Nassau County.

Moreover, NY-04 is equally a fighting ground where Congresswoman and former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen seeks another term after she narrowly ousted Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito, 51.2% to 48.8%.

With less than one hundred days left, NY Republicans and Democrats are all in to reclaim seats and fend off newcomer opponents. With many districts within just one to four points, millions from outside PACs and organizations, as well as grassroots donations, are flowing in weekly to support candidates throughout New York.

With such narrow margins in Congress, New York's competitive districts could determine which party holds the Speaker's gavel.

Republicans need to defend their gains, while Democrats see New York as one of their best opportunities to retake the majority. These races may be decided locally, but their consequences will be felt nationally.

When it comes to control of the U.S. House, all eyes should be on New York.