SHOCK POLL: Blakeman Closes Gap on Hochul

New York’s race for Governor has suddenly tightened, with a new Siena University poll showing Republican Bruce Blakeman just 10 percentage points behind Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul with less than three months until Election Day.

The survey of likely voters released early Wednesday morning has Hochul at 49 percent and Blakeman at 39 percent, a striking shift from Siena’s June poll of registered voters, when Hochul held a commanding 20-point advantage, 52 percent to 32 percent.

The new numbers cut Hochul’s previous margin in half and leave the incumbent Governor short of majority support as the campaign enters its final stretch.

“With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “In June, among registered voters, Hochul’s lead was twice as large, 52-32%.”

The result gives Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive, a significantly more competitive position than earlier polling suggested and puts the race within striking distance as voters begin focusing more closely on November.

There is also a potentially significant historical comparison.

“At this point four years ago, August 2022, when Hochul was just finishing her first year as governor, she led her opponent, former Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39%, before going on to ultimately win the election by six points, 53-47%,” Greenberg said.

Blakeman’s current 10-point deficit is therefore four points smaller than Zeldin’s Siena deficit at roughly the same stage of the 2022 campaign.

The poll shows both candidates maintaining overwhelming support within their parties. Hochul leads among Democrats, 80 percent to 8 percent, while Blakeman carries Republicans, 84 percent to 9 percent. But among independents, Blakeman holds a narrow advantage, 45 percent to 40 percent.

Geographically, the contest also shows sharp divisions. Hochul dominates New York City, 64 percent to 19 percent, while Blakeman leads in the downstate suburbs, 49 percent to 41 percent. Upstate, the two candidates are running virtually even.

The immediate headline, however, is the narrowing statewide margin: a Governor who led by 20 points in Siena’s June registered-voter survey now leads by 10 among likely voters — with Blakeman suddenly facing a far smaller gap and nearly three months remaining to close it.