Single-Digit NYS Governor Poll Electrifies New York GOP

New York’s governor’s race has hit single digits. Pundits and Politicians took notice.

A new Siena University poll shows Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leading Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely voters, a nine-point advantage with six weeks remaining before Election Day.

The comparison to four years ago is drawing attention from Republicans: Siena’s late-September 2022 poll had Hochul crushing Republican Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54% to 37%. Zeldin ultimately narrowed that gap substantially by Election Day and lost by six-percentage points.

Blakeman seized on that history.

“All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul’s downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half,” Blakeman said.

“And let’s remember: at this point in the 2022 race, a Siena poll had Lee Zeldin trailing Kathy Hochul by 17 points. Today, our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me.”

State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt also characterized the poll as evidence of a tightening contest.

“You can feel a buzz, an energy across NYS, as Bruce Blakeman signs are everywhere, and hardly any for Kathy Hochul can be found,” Ortt wrote on X. “Now, a clearer sign on a tightening race. Bruce is down only by single digits. It’s a real race.”

Republican and conservative activists echoed that message online.

Conservative activist Thomas Kellogg pointed to the same 2022 comparison, writing that four years ago Siena had Hochul ahead by 17 points before her eventual single-digit victory.

Conservative commentator Gunther Eagleman declared “NEW YORK IS IN PLAY,” emphasizing the nine-point margin and six weeks remaining.

Political commentator Eric Daugherty similarly highlighted the “SINGLE DIGITS” margin while arguing that several Democratic-leaning states are polling more competitively than expected.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, however, presented a more measured assessment.

Greenberg noted that Hochul has reached 50% while Blakeman “now trails by single digits — well, nine points — in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one.”

The poll also contains encouraging numbers for both campaigns. Blakeman leads Republicans 88%-8% and independents 44%-39%, while Hochul leads Democrats 81%-11%. The candidates are nearly even in the suburbs, with Hochul ahead 48%-46%, while Blakeman holds a 47%-44% edge upstate. Hochul dominates New York City, 61%-27%.

Siena surveyed 1,144 likely voters Sept. 11-17. The poll’s margin of error is approximately four percentage points.