Week 3: Time to Start Believing What We’re Seeing

As we enter Week 3, there are some things we have already learned. Just like always, Week 1 can be a complete lie and shouldn't necessarily be trusted. After two weeks, however, we can finally start to get a better idea of what these teams really are.

Yes, both statements can be true.

Some preseason notions can already be justified or written off after this short a time, and a wise sports bettor has to be willing to pivot and adjust faster than the general public.

Of course, we have some constants. Like Mahomes pulling a Mahomes.

That's what sports bettors have started calling it when Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs to a victory but fails to cover the spread. It happened again Monday night, and it has now happened 37 times — by far the most in the NFL. Josh Allen is next with 24.

The public loves to overinflate the betting value of elite quarterbacks, and that's something worth remembering when the numbers are posted each week.

We also learned that no matter how bad you thought the Dolphins might be, they may actually be worse.

Miami closed as a 13½-point underdog against San Francisco and was never really in the game. Through two weeks, the talk about tanking for the No. 1 pick doesn't look quite as crazy as it did a few weeks ago.

We can also attest to the fact that the Bucs look bad. Actually, let me revise that: Baker Mayfield looks bad.

But not as bad as the Chargers.

Los Angeles is now 0-2 and has a brutal schedule ahead. Khalil Mack admitted after the game that he had tuned out his coach, which raises some serious questions about what's happening inside that locker room. When personalities and coaching styles begin clashing publicly, that's something bettors should pay attention to.

The Chargers are also only the second team in NFL history to lose consecutive home games by double digits against teams that had winning percentages below .200 the previous season. That's not exactly the kind of trend you want attached to your team in September.

It also appears the public hasn't fully adjusted on some of the look-ahead lines involving Los Angeles.

Another thing to watch as the season moves along is the weather. Rain and especially wind can completely change the complexion of an NFL game.

The Bears scored 59 points in Week 1 but couldn't manage a single touchdown against a decent Vikings defense, with the weather in the Windy City looking more like a monsoon than a football game.

As the weeks move along, we can start throwing away some of those Week 1 performances. But we shouldn't ignore the early-season signs. Some teams are already showing us exactly who they are, and others are heading toward desperate territory.

Remember, only about 12% of NFL teams that start a season 0-2 go on to make the playoffs. Starting 0-3 is even more unforgiving, with only about 2.4% of teams overcoming that start to reach the postseason since 1990.

That's why Week 3 matters.

The sample size is still small, but the excuses are getting smaller, too.